Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf87e97c5ead081ab4197947a0d9a1309e27edd3bcdb1f820ffa050473a474efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 26c | 2,004$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 73c | 1,904$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.46 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,390$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.08 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 977.7$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.62 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 19c | 579.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…1a41backed Yes | 20c | 475.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 73c | 468.29$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 446.23$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.81 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 27c | 424.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 30c | 358$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed No | 71c | 242.45$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 26c | 189.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 70c | 172$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 71c | 149.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 133.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…852abacked No | 72c | 130.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 35c | 111.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…ba8bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09a…5cb8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…a1aabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…5dc5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 24c | 81.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 27c | 65.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 42.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…6e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…effbbacked No | 52c | 27.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
- Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.