Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf89ffc726de45601d52ded5096687731f75713ca800bc81edcf2ec266ca5fcc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 830.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 466.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 4c | 409.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 384.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 18c | 347.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 10c | 320.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 292.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 276.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 15c | 272.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 219.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 28c | 214.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 189.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 184.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 14c | 161.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 157.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 143.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 109.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 83.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 82.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 28c | 77.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 76.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 19c | 76.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 75.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 70.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 70.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 67.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 66.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 27c | 58.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 27c | 53.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 48.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 22c | 48.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 46.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 29.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 80c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 77c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.