Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945cfbda5945904b3fe0b8e1c5657c8aaa35432ef8368d6c893ea2fa6ce7db25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 10c | 942.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 3c | 441.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 307$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 252.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 38c | 238.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 43c | 233.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 211.15$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 193$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 169.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 9c | 167.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 149.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 140.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 139.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 133.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 110.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 109.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 57c | 103.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 99.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 83.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 57c | 78.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 67c | 74.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 62c | 72.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 62c | 71.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 37c | 67.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 50.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 21c | 50.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 51c | 50.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 50.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 58c | 47.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 79c | 46.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 78c | 46.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 43.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 43.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 42.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 40.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 50c | 39.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 39.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 70c | 35.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 59c | 33.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 52c | 32.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 32c | 31.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 56c | 27.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 26.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 52c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 23.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 67c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.