Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a72ec0c0577fa85b02e28568a956611509afdd55092a37acaad1ae59e24ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 1c | 1,151$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 956.9$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 894.32$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 646.33$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 6c | 637.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 314.67$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 270$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 77c | 254.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 223.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 204.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 203.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 51c | 197.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 12c | 168.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 79c | 146.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 143$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 138.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 124.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 112.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 103.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 98.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 49c | 86.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 86.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 84.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 51c | 82.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 64c | 78.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 55c | 75.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 69.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 45c | 65.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 47c | 53.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 54c | 53.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 65c | 52.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 53c | 51.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed Yes | 68c | 50.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 49.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 52c | 48.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 46c | 44.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 51c | 41.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 47c | 37.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 34c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 45c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 55c | 33.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 33.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 51c | 33.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 68c | 31.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 31.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 46c | 31.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 51c | 29.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 28.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 52c | 28.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 45c | 27.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 66c | 25.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 21.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…a955backed No | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.