Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b6093d1c416b78d91c10dbaaced9de147bef523006cf56eec59a8ed593b83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 18c | 943.11$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.02 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 625.76$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.02 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 356.46$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 28c | 251.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 142.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 30c | 134.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 117.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 24c | 117.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 111$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 29c | 107.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 104.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 100.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 96.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 86.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 20c | 76.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…8146backed Yes | 28c | 75.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 30c | 66.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 65.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 60.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b4c2backed Yes | 35c | 56.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 54.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 78c | 36.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 33.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 38c | 28.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 23.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 78c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 18.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 18.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.