TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed No40c2,438$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.7628324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes49c940$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.61,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked Yes51c900$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4592759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+47%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No47c686.41$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.382,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No45c489.28$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.451,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes60c345.8$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No31c333.62$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.444,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No44c308.17$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.363,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes56c303.05$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.791,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1507443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked Yes47c238$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0613444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc86d…2e76backed No17c222.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.844816.7%8 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes19c209$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.484,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes61c185.59$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No31c164.01$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3528441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No14c163.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.043,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c142.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes59c138$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No50c136$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes54c130.31$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.861,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes59c124.27$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.322,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No42c124.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes49c123.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.41,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c121.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.776,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No17c116.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.291,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes56c111$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.712,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No44c109.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No38c105.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6322645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c98.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c91.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.744,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b96…4268backed No45c89.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.092941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No45c84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9664167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No20c78.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6372125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes60c77.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No37c66.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.872,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No48c62.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked No49c60.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9374…3770backed No41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No49c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.49746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…c110backed Yes60c59.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes58c56.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3342148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No49c56.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No42c52.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No43c51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2716148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2721950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2718254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes51c49.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2537144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed No38c47.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.494344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No38c44.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7103…c469backed No39c44.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.942152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No40c41.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.942,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.812747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No37c37.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.838450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2f0…35f7backed No49c35.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.341172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+48%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked No48c31.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No47c31.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No41c31.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x845c…a1b2backed No43c30.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.461346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes49c30.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158155.6%45 W · 36 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes56c30.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7337570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb80a…6163backed Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.181855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes68c28.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5121964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No37c28.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.843,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed Yes52c28.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.586839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7920842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed No45c23.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.821060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No46c22.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes64c21.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1476936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes49c21.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.597,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes60c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44951%25 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc9…0e26backed Yes72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes76c17.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes69c14.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2910430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0e37…20bebacked Yes76c13.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.