Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a9e3da352b6adf79989a97d84fbd40f487194860a033ebaf01527628b47b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 40c | 2,438$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.76 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 940$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 686.41$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 489.28$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 345.8$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 333.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 308.17$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 303.05$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.79 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 47c | 238$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 17c | 222.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 209$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 61c | 185.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 31c | 164.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 163.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 142.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 136$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 130.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 59c | 124.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 124.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 123.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 121.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 17c | 116.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 56c | 111$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 44c | 109.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 38c | 105.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 98.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 91.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 45c | 89.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 20c | 78.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes | 60c | 77.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 66.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 49c | 60.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…c110backed Yes | 60c | 59.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 58c | 56.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 49c | 56.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 52.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 49.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 38c | 47.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 38c | 44.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 39c | 44.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 41.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 37c | 37.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 49c | 35.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 48c | 31.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 31.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 41c | 31.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed No | 43c | 30.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 56c | 30.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 68c | 28.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 37c | 28.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 52c | 28.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 45c | 23.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 46c | 22.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 64c | 21.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…0e26backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 76c | 17.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 69c | 14.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…20bebacked Yes | 76c | 13.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.