TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,685 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No48c1,263$601 inLost-$600.9975240.8%307 W · 445 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes54c430.85$233 inWon+$198.032,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes52c381.65$200 inWon+$181.498,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No46c381.48$174 inLost-$173.911,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes55c350.82$193 inWon+$157.8710426.9%28 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes54c115.34$62 inWon+$53.061,30250.2%653 W · 649 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…bd60backed No45c90$41 inLost-$40.57741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed No46c90$41 inLost-$41.47445.9%34 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes56c66.32$37 inWon+$29.1866837.1%248 W · 420 L+0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No45c63.05$28 inLost-$28.3718050%90 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed No46c54.29$25 inLost-$24.9725955.2%143 W · 116 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fc…097ebacked No45c44.98$20 inLost-$20.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a85…3699backed No46c37.17$17 inLost-$17.142152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No43c35$15 inLost-$15.0572350.5%365 W · 358 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes57c35$20 inWon+$15.051,25356.2%704 W · 549 L+73.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.