TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,610 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9dd…b525backed Under32c1,035$331 inLost-$331.265851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over68c1,000$680 inWon+$32024855.2%137 W · 111 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f7…7656backed Over65c618.69$400 inWon+$218.693262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under35c401.48$141 inLost-$140.55,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under32c238.09$76 inLost-$76.1966837.1%248 W · 420 L+0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under36c128.68$46 inLost-$45.968,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over68c100$68 inWon+$3228851.7%149 W · 139 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over68c57.28$39 inWon+$18.3323253%123 W · 109 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over68c54.88$37 inWon+$17.452,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.