TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,173 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under23c3,273$757 inLost-$757.338,11248.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L+27.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over74c2,820$2,087 inWon+$733.242,51939%982 W · 1,537 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over75c999.99$750 inWon+$25021366.7%142 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Over75c996$747 inWon+$24910426.9%28 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Over75c614.51$461 inWon+$153.637847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under25c533.59$133 inLost-$133.332,28734.3%784 W · 1,503 L-30.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under25c473.26$120 inLost-$120.091,30350.1%653 W · 650 L-14.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under4c370.47$14 inLost-$13.9915143%65 W · 86 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under26c260.44$67 inLost-$66.8318050%90 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under26c201.78$52 inLost-$52.4655946%257 W · 302 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed Under25c129.04$32 inLost-$32.2618247.8%87 W · 95 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under26c108$28 inLost-$28.087445.9%34 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under26c100$26 inLost-$2623453%124 W · 110 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under25c79$20 inLost-$19.7541662%258 W · 158 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Over74c76.56$57 inWon+$19.915168.6%35 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+36.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Under21c75.64$16 inLost-$16.0719548.7%95 W · 100 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Under25c63.89$16 inLost-$16.018950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under27c55.56$15 inLost-$1515057.3%86 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked Over75c49.16$37 inWon+$12.293647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under26c40$10 inLost-$10.435240.3%142 W · 210 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Over75c40$30 inWon+$10.157450%37 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…1cd3backed Over74c27.03$20 inWon+$7.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over75c22.71$17 inWon+$5.681,28253.7%689 W · 593 L+5.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.