South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da6569a9b1bd64284ac6ad3e3b140d5d4ab80b3515da01e62826a646ce8ffb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 13c | 1,003$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.61 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 36c | 999.98$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 24c | 754.1$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.57 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 64c | 534$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +11.1wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 75c | 534$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 64c | 358.49$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 309.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.3 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under | 6c | 164.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 65c | 155.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…75a6backed Over | 73c | 153.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…46eebacked Under | 61c | 146.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 79c | 123.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed Over | 71c | 77.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 64c | 77.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Over | 33c | 60.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Over | 70c | 57.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 30c | 57.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 26c | 56.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 65c | 49.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 42.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…6fd9backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 54c | 38.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Over | 69c | 36.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 31c | 35.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Over | 64c | 29.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 73c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.