South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e9adc94b16be5a2fd4f3f9769d2e6a5c92196aa540160d28410496e1e3e440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 57c | 2,913$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.14 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 28c | 2,084$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.24 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 72c | 1,251$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.58 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Over | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 612.12$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.46 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 28c | 581.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.89 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 501.7$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 450.33$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 72c | 334.06$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.52 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 317.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.55 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 281.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 259.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Under | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…ece7backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 149.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 62c | 142.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 72c | 137.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 73c | 107$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 64c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 28c | 82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…46eebacked Under | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 28c | 46.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 51c | 43.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 43.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 76c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 68c | 26.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.