Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ebd847e588a84f1190fc13f8e4cbb11de6297fe74e9239232c55bb901f705e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 20c | 1,707$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.37 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,502$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 11c | 655.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 496.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 14c | 490.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 15c | 414.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 75c | 400$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 27c | 367.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 357.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…c69dbacked No | 77c | 319.6$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 302.05$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 16c | 291.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 247.61$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 17c | 241.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 26c | 239.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…4d40backed Yes | 5c | 229.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 215.4$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 206.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 9c | 199.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 156.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 138.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 133.95$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 8c | 132.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 14c | 97.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 18c | 97.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 20c | 95.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 90.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 27c | 74.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 25c | 66.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 66.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 53.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 23c | 49.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 45.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 26.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 76c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 78c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.