Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c518d2165f51d3b52723326bbc2b9a2072351ed67f20e5cd5f00f9a7699d660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 838.24$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 550.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.31 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 71c | 519.79$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.85 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 59c | 505.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.67 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 503.86$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 482.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 44c | 440.04$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…78d5backed Yes | 31c | 416.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 51c | 410.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.08 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 397.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.15 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 64c | 384.71$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 381.54$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 25c | 379.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.35 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 346.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 311.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 304.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.79 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…6e3cbacked No | 72c | 283.4$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3bdbbacked No | 64c | 244.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 236.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…480cbacked No | 8c | 230.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 227$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 6c | 226.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 226.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 67c | 225$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…3f54backed Yes | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 217.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…9d00backed No | 6c | 213.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 52c | 208.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 196$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 52c | 194.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 177.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 161.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked Yes | 33c | 159.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 143.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 142.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 140.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 30c | 138.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 133.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 29c | 123.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 56c | 119.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 118.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 117.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 112.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 111.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 106.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 64c | 102.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 102.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 35c | 101.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 99.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 33c | 90.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 76c | 89.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 70c | 88.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 88.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 87.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 84.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 79.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 78c | 75.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 72.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 71.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 26c | 70.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 40c | 69.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 67.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 26c | 65.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 67c | 62.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 59.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 58.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 58.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 58.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 58.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 37c | 57.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 79c | 56.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 52.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 51.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 50.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 29c | 49.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 48.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 45.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb1…4835backed Yes | 66c | 45.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 61c | 44.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 40.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.