Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833bd7d6382901f8eaa4cca95967c95ea09545584d4fa9f95937541c416de0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,037$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 563.16$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 482.87$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.07 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 454.29$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.83 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 23c | 449.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 420.62$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 415.39$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 400.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 53c | 383.85$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 370.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 358.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 341$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 50c | 286$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 279.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 6c | 246.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 233.06$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…480cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 9c | 195$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 7c | 192.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 182$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 179$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 177$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 53c | 172.46$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 164$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 74c | 140.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 15c | 135.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 133.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 132.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 130.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 12c | 128.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 125.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 41c | 111.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 80c | 95.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 12c | 93.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 44c | 92.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 81.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 38c | 78.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 75.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 73.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…fb71backed Yes | 39c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 69.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…3c10backed Yes | 36c | 69.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 61.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 60.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 56.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 53.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 49.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 38c | 48.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 45.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 34c | 42.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 40.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 39.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 37.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 49c | 36.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 55c | 35.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 27.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 64c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…30cabacked Yes | 51c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked No | 70c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 21.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 20.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.