MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf900f82447ac231572bf508300b6b5f55abbbe7e47f9aef6e1a6f8d0c040cc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…d41cbacked Over | 75c | 4,032$3,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.29 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 25c | 3,047$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.56 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Over | 52c | 2,158$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.84 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Under | 46c | 1,903$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.16 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 54c | 1,720$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.07 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 1,575$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.34 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 49c | 989.18$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.7 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Over | 72c | 896.19$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 53c | 794.84$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.58 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 728.51$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Under | 34c | 647.28$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 49c | 593.51$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…1d1ebacked Under | 31c | 560.05$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…2991backed Under | 13c | 557.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 53c | 531.73$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.91 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 25c | 489.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 40c | 369.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 54c | 344$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 55c | 329.81$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 72c | 236.32$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 49c | 219.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 45c | 218.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 53c | 203.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 14c | 164.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 124.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 95.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 26c | 88.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 53c | 86.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 53c | 86.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 74c | 85.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 25c | 77.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 49c | 69.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 70c | 66.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 45c | 65.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Over | 53c | 56.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 76c | 48.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 37.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 46c | 37.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 46c | 37.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Over | 76c | 30.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Over | 61c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 72c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…69d6backed Over | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 73c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.