MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf72903cb9eab1abb66e444224a44fd6e0fefabc9da36c455e48e97e44db63e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 1,783$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.92 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 9c | 1,300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,274$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.58 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 57c | 1,160$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.18 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…9d33backed Over | 46c | 1,052$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 708.32$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 43c | 639.86$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.72 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 536.91$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.56 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 47c | 515$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.95 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 309.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 63c | 278.4$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 268.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 37c | 253.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 56c | 190.83$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 72c | 182.02$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 44c | 159.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 51c | 148.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 47c | 138.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 44c | 118.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 51c | 96.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 30c | 85.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 55c | 84.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 55c | 84.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 55c | 84.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 70c | 84.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 61.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 54c | 60.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 40c | 42.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 39.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 39.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 56c | 38.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 56c | 34.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 34.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 56c | 33.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 31.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 47c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 56c | 28.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 56c | 28.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 65c | 24.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 56c | 24.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.