NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9084095127e8fb4efbc8d7a43259a7207b6fd212df478d8625bcb908bb14f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 518.5$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.09 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 449.42$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 291.4$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 289.8$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 44c | 289.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 261.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 51c | 192$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 54c | 188$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Over | 47c | 158$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 149.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 43c | 143.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 60c | 125.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 42c | 116.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 57c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 101.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 91.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 47c | 74.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 74.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 57c | 69.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 63c | 64.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 64c | 59.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 58c | 53.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…62bebacked Under | 44c | 44.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…4565backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Under | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 85 | 71.8%61 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 72c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 56c | 19.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Jets vs. AvalancheJets won
- Jets vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Jets vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.