CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf91e8794de188acf37591f6fa6a45a20b0c10e636a5d062af6674a698fb46fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, Leo Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 74c | 2,159$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.78 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ursa | 69c | 1,723$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.19 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Leo Team | 34c | 1,372$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.8 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Leo Team | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed Leo Team | 38c | 870.03$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.56 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…9bf5backed Ursa | 62c | 858$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Leo Team | 29c | 830.91$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…0105backed Ursa | 62c | 590.42$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.28 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ursa | 66c | 568$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Leo Team | 38c | 536.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.86 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Leo Team | 36c | 533.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ursa | 62c | 517.83$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Leo Team | 41c | 504.43$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.29 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ursa | 65c | 491.6$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.69 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Ursa | 63c | 294$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ursa | 63c | 269.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Leo Team | 34c | 247$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Leo Team | 39c | 246.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Leo Team | 46c | 216.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Ursa | 63c | 208.78$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Leo Team | 40c | 205.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ursa | 68c | 202.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Leo Team | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Ursa | 59c | 199.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 405 | 42%170 W · 235 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed Ursa | 60c | 190.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Leo Team | 25c | 184.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ursa | 73c | 179.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Leo Team | 29c | 162.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Ursa | 60c | 121.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 70c | 120.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ursa | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Leo Team | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Leo Team | 31c | 97.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Leo Team | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Leo Team | 42c | 89.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…fa33backed Leo Team | 56c | 88.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Ursa | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Ursa | 66c | 79.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Leo Team | 32c | 76.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Leo Team | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Leo Team | 37c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Ursa | 59c | 54.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Leo Team | 29c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Leo Team | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 40%62 W · 93 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…854bbacked Ursa | 50c | 46.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked Leo Team | 37c | 44.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 71c | 37.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Leo Team | 36c | 36.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Ursa | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 215 | 36.3%78 W · 137 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Ursa | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Ursa | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Ursa | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Leo Team | 40c | 28.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -13.4wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Ursa | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Leo Team | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 217 | 55.8%121 W · 96 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Leo Team | 43c | 24.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…17e6backed Ursa | 58c | 22.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 62c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Ursa | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…584cbacked Ursa | 66c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.