CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c026f77e7fc3abedb779bf8640780eae4a90caa5db52c9c9685bbe0a9e31f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, Leo Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Ursa | 57c | 1,279$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.1 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Leo Team | 43c | 1,101$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.36 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Leo Team | 25c | 948.58$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Leo Team | 73c | 719.86$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.72 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 58c | 666.36$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.04 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Leo Team | 42c | 663$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 33c | 607.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.35 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Leo Team | 31c | 503.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Leo Team | 20c | 485.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…87d0backed Leo Team | 39c | 427.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.87 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Leo Team | 41c | 416$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ursa | 57c | 407$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.34 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Leo Team | 29c | 349$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Leo Team | 19c | 289.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ursa | 52c | 279.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Leo Team | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ursa | 69c | 242.13$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…38e1backed Ursa | 44c | 227.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ursa | 40c | 210.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 62c | 156.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ursa | 56c | 154.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Leo Team | 39c | 152$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…e875backed Leo Team | 57c | 96.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ursa | 37c | 92.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ursa | 37c | 90.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Leo Team | 75c | 80.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 34c | 52.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Leo Team | 44c | 49.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ursa | 56c | 44.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed Leo Team | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 286 | 51%146 W · 140 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked Leo Team | 77c | 37.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ursa | 73c | 31.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Leo Team | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Leo Team | 40c | 28.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Leo Team | 60c | 19.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 217 | 55.8%121 W · 96 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Leo Team | 78c | 16.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Leo Team | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.