Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf921eced42a0c3462de722ad22054f77e419b59c8e16a84278ce933feac208dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 17c | 5,879$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.25 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 78c | 5,157$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 23c | 4,873$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 21c | 2,647$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.7 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…bf18backed No | 25c | 1,459$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…1938backed Yes | 75c | 1,455$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…3dacbacked No | 25c | 1,189$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 20c | 1,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 12c | 806.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 775.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 731 | 33.8%247 W · 484 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 80c | 754.81$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 74c | 687.96$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 24c | 654.74$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 24c | 599.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 24c | 543.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked Yes | 80c | 513.78$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 23c | 406.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed No | 20c | 376$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 20c | 328.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 77c | 259.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…0bc9backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 78c | 244$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 76c | 230.26$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 24c | 222.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 79c | 187.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…63b2backed Yes | 79c | 138.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 72cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…033fbacked Yes | 76c | 131.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Yes | 79c | 127.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…9008backed Yes | 76c | 125.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a49…a53bbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…84e5backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 75c | 109.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 26c | 97.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…5741backed Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…dc86backed Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 78c | 67.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…946cbacked Yes | 76c | 67.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76f…d928backed Yes | 76c | 52.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 79c | 50.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…5c5fbacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cd54backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 73c | 28.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…646bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f0…b870backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…18ddbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…3d7cbacked Yes | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a12…1e5abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…b18ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…6720backed Yes | 79c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…f9e9backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…41d2backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-29?this page
- Will FC Arouca vs. FC Porto end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2025-09-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.