Champions League · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf94f31251fb3c8ee6229bf7a4ffe9e960b17852afc7c84b46e199a65e41b6277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 3,545$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.99 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 11c | 1,249$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.61 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 11c | 999.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.39 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…a31ebacked Under | 55c | 905.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 805.43$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.8 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 11c | 772.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.57 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 12c | 360$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 340.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.33 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 47c | 215.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 166$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…d4b0backed Over | 12c | 148.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 78.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…8f4dbacked Under | 66c | 64.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 50.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b3…6c72backed Over | 62c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Under | 57c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.