Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc810e554625f2e3d79c3be9beae19361feda604279f8a6c576a4b553727a44ef

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Athletic Clubof Atalanta BC, Athletic Club
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,647 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Atalanta BC	33c	10,265$3,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,379.43	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Athletic Club	70c	10,000$7,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,999.98	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Athletic Club	72c	9,526$6,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,667.25	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Athletic Club	73c	5,431$3,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470.74	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Atalanta BC	28c	4,535$1,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,278.41	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Atalanta BC	28c	2,700$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Athletic Club	73c	2,488$1,816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$671.7	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Atalanta BC	30c	2,417$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.1	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Atalanta BC	30c	1,954$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.97	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Atalanta BC	45c	1,111$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Atalanta BC	33c	966$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.6	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Atalanta BC	40c	684$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.6	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Atalanta BC	30c	666.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Atalanta BC	30c	612.01$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.38	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Athletic Club	68c	595.32$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.5	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Atalanta BC	31c	341.94$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	243	27.2%66 W · 177 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Athletic Club	69c	333.12$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.27	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Athletic Club	68c	330$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.71	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Atalanta BC	33c	304.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	201	33.8%68 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x177c…bcd1backed Atalanta BC	44c	294.95$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.78	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Atalanta BC	30c	240$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Atalanta BC	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Athletic Club	67c	221.81$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.2	156	57.1%89 W · 67 L	+10.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Atalanta BC	31c	184.18$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.1	98	41.8%41 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc884…a4e6backed Atalanta BC	30c	170$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+4.8wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f26…14f0backed Atalanta BC	30c	156.89$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.07	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b80…d023backed Athletic Club	71c	156.34$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.34	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	61cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Atalanta BC	27c	151.95$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Atalanta BC	30c	133.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Atalanta BC	30c	110$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	607	48.4%294 W · 313 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5649…99adbacked Atalanta BC	29c	106.88$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.99	44	63.6%28 W · 16 L	+6.3wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Atalanta BC	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Atalanta BC	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	92	30.4%28 W · 64 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Athletic Club	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Atalanta BC	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	82	29.3%24 W · 58 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Atalanta BC	32c	93.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Atalanta BC	32c	92.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Athletic Club	67c	79.99$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Atalanta BC	28c	74.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	239	47.7%114 W · 125 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Atalanta BC	27c	74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	159	38.4%61 W · 98 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce28…51bfbacked Atalanta BC	33c	67$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x518b…cf8abacked Atalanta BC	30c	66.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	106	47.2%50 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x796a…b0a4backed Atalanta BC	30c	66.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Atalanta BC	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Atalanta BC	32c	54.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.57	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9c…4f90backed Atalanta BC	30c	45.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+85%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…745bbacked Atalanta BC	30c	38.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Athletic Club	73c	38.05$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.27	88	68.2%60 W · 28 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	76cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Atalanta BC	41c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	68	17.6%12 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Athletic Club	68c	31$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.92	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Athletic Club	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	107	60.7%65 W · 42 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b47…2448backed Athletic Club	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa906…ff14backed Athletic Club	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e0…9586backed Athletic Club	71c	22.54$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.54	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e5…118cbacked Athletic Club	71c	22.54$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.54	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…30b6backed Athletic Club	71c	22.54$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.54	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Athletic Club	68c	22.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.07	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+3.9wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd523…ce65backed Athletic Club	71c	21.13$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.13	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	61cpaid	-41%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbeb7…c2e9backed Athletic Club	71c	20.58$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c7…b84abacked Athletic Club	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	72cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf45a…854bbacked Athletic Club	71c	18.55$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.38	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+133.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83f…d1ebbacked Athletic Club	72c	18.42$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.16	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44f6…2c1ebacked Athletic Club	71c	18.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.31	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa096…31d6backed Athletic Club	71c	18.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.31	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacff…4176backed Athletic Club	71c	16.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.9	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	61cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dff…d2d1backed Athletic Club	71c	16.9$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.9	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f38…c357backed Athletic Club	71c	15.79$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	68cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3548…b7c0backed Athletic Club	72c	14.69$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f0…770dbacked Athletic Club	72c	14.42$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.04	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)this page
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over won
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over won
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event