Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9953d16a9de1b465812a2d15512f716b369c45161927872e98ed793d84a7307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 37c | 1,200$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.43 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 34c | 689.54$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.41 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 569.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 412.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 411.94$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 27c | 318.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 302.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 62c | 296.75$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 289.17$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 76c | 281.45$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 9c | 268.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 268.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 72c | 263.29$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 219.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 61c | 180$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 164.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 157$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 68c | 146.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 143.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 58c | 136.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 120.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 71c | 111.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 18c | 103.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 102.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 100.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 100.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 570 | 54.4%310 W · 260 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 68c | 96.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 95.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 95.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 19c | 92.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 90.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 45c | 89.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 45c | 88.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 88.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 23c | 85.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 83.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 36c | 79.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 79.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 78.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 76.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 74.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 46c | 64.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 46c | 62.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 35c | 60.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 46c | 60.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 60.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 57.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 38c | 54.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 53.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 23c | 53.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 45c | 52.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 42c | 50.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 49.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 49.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24af…27d4backed Yes | 49c | 49.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…535cbacked No | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 58c | 48.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 48.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 48.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 32c | 45.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 58c | 44.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 40.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 41c | 40.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 38.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 42c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 64c | 37.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 31c | 37.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 36.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…fcaebacked No | 53c | 34.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 56c | 32.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 72c | 31.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 31.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…9e67backed No | 53c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 31.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e1…ae66backed No | 57c | 31.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 31.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed No | 73c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or below on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.