Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6a315b9de8e045f5169f1a2e87dad21f495aefb7c350d79c0f4640e9384f5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 58c | 706.31$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.1 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 558.41$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.35 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 512.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 42c | 471.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.16 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 452.78$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.75 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 404.43$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.65 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 380.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 51c | 380.53$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 278.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 247.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 233.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 188.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 41c | 177.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 161$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 156.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 66c | 147.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 131.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 20c | 120.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 34c | 118.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 42c | 112.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 104.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 44c | 102.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 95.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 90.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 88.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 37c | 87.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 45c | 86.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 83.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 81.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 81.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 78.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 77.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 62c | 76.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 57c | 70.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 36c | 68.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 67.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 66.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 31c | 64.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 71c | 62.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 61.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 56c | 55.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 77c | 55.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 35c | 55.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 31c | 50.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 66c | 49.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 48.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 46.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 48c | 43.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 42.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…553bbacked No | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 62c | 37.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 36.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 33.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 32.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 59c | 31.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…9855backed No | 65c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 30.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 59c | 29.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 44c | 29.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 65c | 27.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…e70fbacked Yes | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 42c | 23.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 21.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 19.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 64c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 68c | 14.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or below on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.