South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Monterrey vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf99aabb37b58b38e4fe99ce0cf7fe49a843d32700983539bfc15a8cbebff0bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Yes | 26c | 14,000$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 5,711$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.18 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 3,453$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.88 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 2,624$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.87 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed No | 59c | 1,181$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 697.66$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 640.28$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.06 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 55c | 432.71$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 58c | 355.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 76c | 204.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 179$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 25c | 172$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 140.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Yes | 26c | 129.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 122.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Yes | 26c | 114.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 71.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…c2ddbacked Yes | 27c | 62.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 78c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 39.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Monterrey vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.