TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x189e…89d9backed No71c1,166$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.6529345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes29c1,162$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.511,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No46c729.7$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.634,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No7c584.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes49c481.85$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6938860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No78c286.09$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.017979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x571d…4e76backed Yes40c283.15$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.224641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes9c250$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.632,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes21c237$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.7163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes36c222.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7540226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes7c206.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.453,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c193.41$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.452,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2a…4613backed Yes11c186.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+366.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c180$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.254,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No73c175.62$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9848523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes53c174.52$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes33c153.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No67c150$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7827461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c143.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.36,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No48c135.46$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5718046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes51c133.8$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.221,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed Yes35c133$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0133154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c126.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.693,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c93…436abacked Yes30c121.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.423324.2%8 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No65c103.1$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes49c102.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes31c100.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.551,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No80c98.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7363255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.474,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes34c91.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.141,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No49c90.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes26c90.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.654,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c84.68$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No46c84.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7818142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c81.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No39c81.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0628441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No66c78.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.659976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes51c78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5832147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes29c75.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.621,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c75.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.261,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes41c73.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3945148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes29c68.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes29c68.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8937355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes33c68.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c67.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No79c62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.184,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No70c61.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.838,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d3…5122backed Yes57c60.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.821546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes49c60.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3825935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3473…e864backed Yes32c59.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9111134.2%38 W · 73 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes34c59.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5722645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes43c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.621,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No52c51.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.542,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1477555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes28c48.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.612,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes32c47.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No68c45.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.035,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes33c43.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.812,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes40c39.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.731662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes45c37.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No55c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.631,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed No71c33.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.953050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes59c33.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6982268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No72c30.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No45c30.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4917759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7744945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1142555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0340461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b1…11d2backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.510553.3%56 W · 49 L+15.0wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes51c29.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1961676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xbabc…f582backed No69c27.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.925971.2%42 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…e45ebacked No72c24.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.522548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes57c23.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0135264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.726850%34 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No70c20.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c20.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.683,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.241,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0037…8d61backed Yes51c19.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…536dbacked No80c15.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick74cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.