Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e3aafa6a2afdd63a9630dabfa010410b6c5ce85927e8c72a06dc2eab91c9ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 24c | 1,018$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 381.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 4c | 352.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 204.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 187.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 169.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 66c | 161$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 159.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 79c | 154$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 146.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 143.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 139.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 126.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 125.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 37c | 104.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 66c | 99.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 90.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 90.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 89.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 26c | 73.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 39c | 59.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 42.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 63c | 39.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 66c | 36.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 35c | 31.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 79c | 31.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 30.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 23.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 66c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 72c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.