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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on April 14?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,927 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cd0…fcddbacked Yes0c3,026$12 inLost-$12.241442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d8…d558backed Yes0c2,573$12 inLost-$11.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked Yes1c1,139$16 inLost-$15.956647%31 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7be…570cbacked Yes50c400$201 inLost-$200.96246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…363abacked Yes8c372.67$28 inLost-$28.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes32c366.26$117 inLost-$116.783332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked Yes45c356.53$160 inLost-$160.2660033.8%203 W · 397 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No49c301.3$149 inWon+$152.682352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No67c299.99$201 inWon+$9960235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3bb…fc2abacked Yes42c195.64$83 inLost-$82.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Yes32c154.55$50 inLost-$502653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes40c139.26$55 inLost-$55.1914022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes36c120.18$43 inLost-$42.961,73118%311 W · 1,420 L+73.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No48c101.23$49 inWon+$52.3810061%61 W · 39 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc12…1e02backed No68c100$68 inWon+$321978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick64cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No52c100$52 inWon+$4835627%96 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes32c90$29 inLost-$28.881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c68$46 inWon+$21.769,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed No43c60$26 inWon+$34.249338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf03…28dbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No40c49.99$20 inWon+$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No55c38$21 inWon+$16.987852.6%41 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No66c36.17$24 inWon+$12.176867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…4635backed No60c30$18 inWon+$121384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+57.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed No68c30$20 inWon+$9.67450%37 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No68c20$14 inWon+$6.44555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6bf…8e48backed No60c20$12 inWon+$85100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe855…c225backed No50c20$10 inWon+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.