Europa Conference League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9f788c53b848fcf09ff2b8c44d6c4a5eddad052a2df81797a60d4e3b4ac107c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 67c | 3,053$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.27 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 2c | 2,857$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Under | 6c | 2,210$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 50c | 1,300$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.89 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 3c | 1,276$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 6c | 1,134$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 55c | 683.7$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 11c | 652.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 11c | 343.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 79c | 243.56$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 26c | 204.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 15c | 200.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 31c | 114.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 33c | 103.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 47c | 91.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 53c | 90.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 81 | 21%17 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 46c | 90.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 21c | 82.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 77c | 65.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 23c | 65.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 63.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 68c | 53.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 73c | 51.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 67c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 0.5this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 2.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: KÍ 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: KÍ O/U 0.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: KÍ O/U 2.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 2.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 3.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 4.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: O/U 5.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: Team to AdvanceKKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)KÍ won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KÍ won
- Spread: KÍ (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.