MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa0357979bda79e512e682da0f41f0eb925e3f7f8ea5f3d381a9283d5e46ca1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Athletics, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Athletics | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Guardians | 59c | 9,934$5,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,072.31 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Athletics | 41c | 9,891$4,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,055.36 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Athletics | 46c | 1,618$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.28 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…951cbacked Athletics | 45c | 1,416$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4743backed Guardians | 55c | 1,415$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics | 45c | 1,242$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.99 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Guardians | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Athletics | 5c | 897$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 7c | 881.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Guardians | 55c | 843.66$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.65 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 70c | 826.35$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Guardians | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Athletics | 2c | 564.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0e…6527backed Guardians | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 33c | 422.65$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Athletics | 4c | 317.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Athletics | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Athletics | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Athletics | 43c | 200.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 55c | 193$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Guardians | 66c | 191.66$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…d27dbacked Guardians | 59c | 169.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Athletics | 40c | 152.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Athletics | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Guardians | 55c | 142.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Athletics | 30c | 116.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 312 | 44.2%138 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Athletics | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Guardians | 68c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Athletics | 40c | 91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Guardians | 58c | 88.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…1174backed Guardians | 60c | 81.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 190 | 52.6%100 W · 90 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Guardians | 58c | 80.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 26c | 74.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Athletics | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…3237backed Athletics | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Guardians | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Athletics | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…0313backed Athletics | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Athletics | 46c | 41.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Guardians | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Guardians | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…72c9backed Guardians | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…275cbacked Athletics | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…e6b3backed Guardians | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…1a90backed Guardians | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Guardians | 54c | 23.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Guardians | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…ad9dbacked Guardians | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…db19backed Guardians | 67c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.