China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek R2 released before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa0c9f67f3cc04ae9e5e839d53684974d176b0baf699f3dcd9a8f9010911b167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8990…bc80backed No | 21c | 4,162$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +229.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,883$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 2,714$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.32 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,016$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,932$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 75c | 1,925$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,519$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…cdf1backed No | 26c | 1,250$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +177.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 10c | 999.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…bfb7backed Yes | 77c | 970$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 14c | 824.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed Yes | 73c | 811.94$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 53c | 779.98$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Yes | 10c | 753.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked No | 27c | 681.85$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…5df4backed No | 46c | 636.64$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 64c | 617.92$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 3c | 589$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 54c | 587.97$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.39 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 27c | 578.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…d7a5backed No | 55c | 552.33$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes | 65c | 541.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 67c | 457.7$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 74c | 436.31$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 13c | 404.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…1984backed Yes | 21c | 399.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…23e8backed No | 25c | 396.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed No | 20c | 387.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 366.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.16 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked Yes | 72c | 346.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…8fc5backed No | 32c | 322.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 52c | 316.4$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…b756backed Yes | 7c | 312.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…d8fdbacked Yes | 64c | 272.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…f61bbacked Yes | 75c | 267.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 17c | 220$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…44c5backed No | 25c | 217.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73b…66abbacked No | 43c | 208.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 205.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 49c | 200.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdac…22acbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes | 58c | 171.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 14c | 167.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…1526backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…8023backed Yes | 56c | 149$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec5…2bbdbacked Yes | 75c | 134.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…7a01backed Yes | 71c | 125$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 26c | 119.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 77c | 119$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…52afbacked Yes | 46c | 119$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 114.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 52c | 112.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 74c | 109.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 97.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 44c | 95.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 30c | 84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…0c8cbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 57c | 80.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 73c | 78.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 22c | 70.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 21c | 69.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 22c | 68.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 39c | 65.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 24c | 61.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 33c | 61.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…2411backed Yes | 67c | 57.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 64c | 57.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed No | 49c | 53.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32b…a82cbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4815…a1afbacked No | 30c | 50.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…d21bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…1ecabacked Yes | 68c | 46.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 46.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2780…ad64backed No | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 39.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…cde7backed Yes | 76c | 34.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 73c | 32.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed No | 52c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 52c | 29.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…4fb9backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…5192backed Yes | 75c | 26.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c0…b38dbacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…3d18backed Yes | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 75c | 23.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…e49ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…e450backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…e7c6backed Yes | 79c | 14.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.