Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa3e9f8552b024ef971af977d73d18792d7def1a14a526116144ea919ee127da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wawrinka | 31c | 5,219$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.97 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Minaur | 69c | 3,627$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.43 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Minaur | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.45 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wawrinka | 29c | 1,432$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.48 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Minaur | 69c | 720$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wawrinka | 30c | 530.46$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.71 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 64c | 489.75$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Wawrinka | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked Wawrinka | 34c | 377.72$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Minaur | 70c | 355.7$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Wawrinka | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Minaur | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…8a86backed Minaur | 69c | 264$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Minaur | 70c | 218.54$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Wawrinka | 34c | 170.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Wawrinka | 19c | 156.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Wawrinka | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…a127backed Minaur | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Minaur | 70c | 143.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wawrinka | 31c | 106.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Wawrinka | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Wawrinka | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Minaur | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Minaur | 70c | 82.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Minaur | 70c | 72.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Minaur | 68c | 63.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…a35cbacked Minaur | 69c | 59.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Minaur | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Wawrinka | 36c | 47.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Wawrinka | 32c | 45.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Minaur | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4e…5ecbbacked Minaur | 69c | 36.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Minaur | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Minaur | 70c | 25.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Minaur | 66c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)this page
- Minaur vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Wawrinka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Wawrinka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stan WawrinkaMinaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs WawrinkaMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.