Tennis · resolved market
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82de2f352be9a84d7955f90a6888c1c7b32476d578a231d52f2da91d8ef2235a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $360,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $420,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Wawrinka | 10c | 48,072$5,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,013.52 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wawrinka | 11c | 23,514$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.99 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Wawrinka | 11c | 19,650$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.48 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…9d6dbacked Wawrinka | 11c | 10,945$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164 | 283 | 38.9%110 W · 173 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Wawrinka | 10c | 9,117$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.72 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wawrinka | 13c | 9,086$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.4 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wawrinka | 0c | 8,138$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wawrinka | 10c | 6,706$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.61 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wawrinka | 14c | 6,086$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.31 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…f300backed Wawrinka | 0c | 5,909$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…a3f3backed Wawrinka | 5c | 5,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 112 | 15.2%17 W · 95 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Wawrinka | 7c | 4,348$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Wawrinka | 11c | 3,700$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.02 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Wawrinka | 5c | 3,329$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Wawrinka | 5c | 1,698$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Wawrinka | 12c | 1,323$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Wawrinka | 9c | 1,225$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Wawrinka | 11c | 1,144$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…3842backed Wawrinka | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…10eabacked Wawrinka | 11c | 905$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…a620backed Wawrinka | 11c | 865$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Wawrinka | 11c | 795.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…80bcbacked Wawrinka | 14c | 719.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wawrinka | 10c | 685.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Wawrinka | 11c | 636$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Wawrinka | 6c | 596.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Wawrinka | 10c | 577.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 333 | 26.4%88 W · 245 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…6405backed Wawrinka | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Wawrinka | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Wawrinka | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Wawrinka | 11c | 435.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked Wawrinka | 11c | 427.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…c982backed Wawrinka | 12c | 419.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Wawrinka | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Wawrinka | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Wawrinka | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wawrinka | 10c | 377.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Wawrinka | 7c | 337.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Wawrinka | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Wawrinka | 16c | 327$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Wawrinka | 16c | 319$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Wawrinka | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Wawrinka | 11c | 283$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Wawrinka | 13c | 269.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wawrinka | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Wawrinka | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wawrinka | 6c | 212.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Wawrinka | 12c | 202.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Wawrinka | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…776abacked Wawrinka | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Wawrinka | 6c | 173.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Wawrinka | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Wawrinka | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Wawrinka | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Wawrinka | 12c | 113.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Wawrinka | 11c | 100.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…1770backed Wawrinka | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe032…ad82backed Wawrinka | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Wawrinka | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Wawrinka | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Wawrinka | 12c | 83.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 181 | 33.1%60 W · 121 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinkathis page
- Minaur vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Wawrinka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Wawrinka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs WawrinkaMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.