Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6b723573d97a4d28bfd5c187da55141e22601e4cf8281a68daca66284e430b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 0c | 38,506$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 13c | 6,965$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…a37fbacked No | 4c | 5,107$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 11c | 2,813$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 12c | 2,628$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.71 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 12c | 1,987$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.06 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 11c | 1,948$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 13c | 1,412$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.61 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 12c | 664$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…b60fbacked No | 11c | 629$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed No | 13c | 552.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…f6e3backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 12c | 304.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 11c | 287.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 14c | 283.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…185cbacked No | 12c | 270.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed No | 13c | 235$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 9c | 233.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…d1ccbacked No | 9c | 210.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 13c | 197.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked No | 11c | 103.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…9d1abacked No | 11c | 101.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed No | 12c | 83.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-08-06?this page
- Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-08-06?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.