Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7c4988e9924eec6bcafde21ac302bc5f53b9e99362fb08aab42ab4a48183cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,090$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 2,473$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…372fbacked No | 73c | 1,532$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 5c | 849.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 13c | 837.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 377.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 345.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Yes | 20c | 275.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 26c | 266.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 27c | 247.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…10c1backed Yes | 6c | 239.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 217.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 75c | 201.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 11c | 193.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 11c | 173.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 165.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 75c | 162.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 7c | 149.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 23c | 145.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 127.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 25c | 126.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…c17fbacked Yes | 25c | 113.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 79c | 88.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 76c | 85.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 83.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 26c | 82.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 14c | 76.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 75.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 65.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked No | 74c | 61.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 54.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 53.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 27c | 48.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 48.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 26c | 48.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed Yes | 25c | 44.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 27c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 31c | 38.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 68c | 35.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 74c | 35.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 31.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 25.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 77c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 77c | 14.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.