Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb9e7cd12b6b6b6a98050fca8a832da6ecdbdea1621e89540c3d25b63f83fe9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 702.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 71c | 550.19$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 414$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 33c | 364.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 291.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 17c | 268.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 4c | 262.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 196.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 190.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 162.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 18c | 153.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 144.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 134.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 111.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 107.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 16c | 96.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…c292backed Yes | 14c | 95.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 87.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 19c | 85.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…1de9backed No | 67c | 82.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 80.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 17c | 77.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 21c | 74.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 32c | 72.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 70.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 33c | 70.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…651abacked Yes | 30c | 65.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 22c | 65.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 43c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 21c | 61.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 60.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 35c | 54.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 75c | 41.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 78c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.