TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x791c…f146backed No0c10,784$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No2c4,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No7c1,052$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6574926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No10c979.91$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.813,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f16…7013backed No1c694.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes43c610.33$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.5888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes75c417.27$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8512348%59 W · 64 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a52…baafbacked Yes79c395.4$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.893836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes71c394.03$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.741,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No10c326.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.634339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes66c316.98$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No11c277.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.72,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes48c239.21$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9524029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No60c237.47$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.062133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No58c210.82$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2712154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked Yes41c185.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8116631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…2555backed No7c183.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc123…ed5bbacked No7c181.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.682512%3 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-81.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f4…665ebacked No56c179.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7814264.1%91 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c153.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aef…48a8backed Yes58c149.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes53c145.14$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.638633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c140.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes42c112.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes39c110.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2717838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c105.97$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes44c104.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6819648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No56c100.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9434250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No11c100.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No58c97.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5244646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes37c92.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.257143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c85.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed No13c83.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7816530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No34c79.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.839436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes45c72.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.051827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc868…7bd7backed Yes77c72.57$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.673863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No71c70.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes42c64.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6915437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52e8…3175backed Yes76c58.9$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.991369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd33…5452backed Yes49c57.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2411140.5%45 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c56.07$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.772,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8162…1a48backed Yes44c54.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.521968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes49c54.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.740242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c53.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.994,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes44c53.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.556240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c1…b590backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294330.2%13 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd335…14a7backed Yes38c49.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.611612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-60.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e49…36a1backed Yes70c49.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.913020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes45c48.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.455,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ca…2acabacked Yes39c46.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.648922.5%20 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No67c44.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5581756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No57c41.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7220942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes54c39.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4317536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes46c39.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes38c37.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.961225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9729…038abacked Yes48c35.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.569037.8%34 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda8…e905backed No63c34.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.843661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c33.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5df…bc23backed No57c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes46c31.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8421930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes35c30.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes38c29.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0151537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked No67c28.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes45c28.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5966735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6d…5e2cbacked No56c26.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+137.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No58c24.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0219547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No59c23.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes49c23.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.137939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c23.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.379,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79f4…8812backed No57c23.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.145060%30 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed No54c20.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.284955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes80c20.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9345…b1b1backed No56c20.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No68c15.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.