Asian League · resolved market
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa99b13b23afc541a056f5c79d80f53c9f75130f64d23ae716d0feba97c5c149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 985.38$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.55 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 16c | 546.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +858.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 78c | 533.49$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 22c | 522.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 78c | 481.84$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 435.78$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 23c | 434.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 77c | 419.03$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 12c | 364.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 17c | 315.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +151%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…6a61backed Under | 6c | 190.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +756.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 174$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 77c | 48.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3963…6c32backed Over | 78c | 40.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Over | 77c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Chongqing Tonglianglong FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Chongqing Tonglianglong FC won
- Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.