Asian League · resolved market
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd69f6077e98fa04a3ae6cec71d930970bf7262935bac1e30a09d3bd0812c2da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 15c | 3,100$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.29 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 15c | 1,280$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.63 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 17c | 882$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 15c | 668.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.67 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 15c | 564.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.91 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Under | 12c | 481.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 430.78$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.59 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 15c | 240$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 9c | 227.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.27 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Under | 17c | 169.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 15c | 137$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 133.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 16c | 117.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 16c | 113.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 109.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 12c | 98.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 93.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 16c | 65.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 68c | 42.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 40c | 37.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 56c | 25.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 75c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed Under | 80c | 13.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Chongqing Tonglianglong FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Chongqing Tonglianglong FC won
- Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.