F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaccf220f7d9eb5e63f106448386be90c7dc574c07b0b7b34c9174e106ba4f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 1c | 3,214$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 17c | 2,876$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.13 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…4c26backed No | 16c | 1,668$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 14c | 1,508$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…60a2backed No | 14c | 715$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 50c | 594.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 49c | 557.45$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.15 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…706fbacked Yes | 72c | 486.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 58c | 333.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed No | 16c | 299.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 19c | 221.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 30c | 204.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 160.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 50c | 152$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…d7b7backed Yes | 51c | 149.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 67c | 143.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 51c | 112.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e783backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 56c | 71.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 64.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…1ce2backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 48c | 41.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…4968backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…7a32backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…832fbacked No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.