Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Disguised vs. Dignitas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad0a58f1754b217a3080cedccb5dd8c772d0d9f68b4f94367fcc53101e2c596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Disguisedof Disguised, Dignitas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Disguised | 61c | 1,807$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.7 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Disguised | 61c | 1,420$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.15 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Dignitas | 56c | 1,187$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.11 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Dignitas | 39c | 1,119$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Dignitas | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Disguised | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Dignitas | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed Disguised | 49c | 797.96$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.96 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Dignitas | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Dignitas | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Dignitas | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Dignitas | 26c | 370.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 259 | 52.9%137 W · 122 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Disguised | 48c | 356$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Dignitas | 23c | 350$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dignitas | 39c | 257.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Dignitas | 15c | 255$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Dignitas | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Disguised | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Dignitas | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…1218backed Dignitas | 20c | 148.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Dignitas | 28c | 143.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Disguised | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed Disguised | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 386 | 24.4%94 W · 292 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Dignitas | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…e71dbacked Dignitas | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Dignitas | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 484 | 48.6%235 W · 249 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Disguised | 46c | 81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed Dignitas | 17c | 69.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Disguised | 76c | 66.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed Disguised | 76c | 65.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Disguised | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 431 | 48%207 W · 224 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…c388backed Dignitas | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Disguised | 65c | 46.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Disguised | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Dignitas | 53c | 37.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.