Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfadb2dc6d0f87595b0f680105f5ce7f0421e902903241eb820a52fccd3db0e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 419.21$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 351.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 77c | 258$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 30c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 143$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 123.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 110.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…4298backed No | 79c | 107.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 90.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 82.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 20c | 81.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 59.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 54.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 78c | 41.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 80c | 36.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 26.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 24.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 23.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.