Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c2e9e3acd65d537239c0054d3cdbfa9bdc0e4acdd1d862804c982d963fbade1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 77c | 292.77$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.43 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 198.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 194$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 14c | 169.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 167.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 61c | 162.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 12c | 153.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 46c | 148.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 127.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 122.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 105.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 100.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 72c | 100.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 97.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 27c | 95.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 74c | 75.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 59c | 74.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 71.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 68.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 67.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 62c | 66.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 60.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 57.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 56.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 55.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 31c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 56c | 49.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 48.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 48.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 45.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 49c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 76c | 39.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 37.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 48c | 35.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 33.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 33.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 32.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 54c | 26.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 25.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 62c | 24.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 58c | 22.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 48c | 22.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 75c | 20.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 77c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8501backed Yes | 77c | 16.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.