Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae28a6f167defe8ea455b3b68fd20c51f3606b4243854b64a760a33f3604b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 327.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 277.29$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 275.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 79c | 251.74$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 205.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 203.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 180.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 130.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 100.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 96.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…cb52backed Yes | 28c | 96.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 40c | 79.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 78.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…afdfbacked Yes | 31c | 69.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 63.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 59.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 30c | 58.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 55.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 41.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 39.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…bd11backed No | 73c | 34.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 32c | 33.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 32.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 73c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 27.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…5c65backed No | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 70c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 17.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.