MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfafa9de54c0f283e73aa9f7ec03272a65edbd95348e5a98d8a3ad992d3d87405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 2,924$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.49 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 1,471$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 1,224$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.48 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f0…3d5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 1c | 1,162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 658.27$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.56 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 501.77$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.64 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 372.93$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 259.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 231.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 192.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 132.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 122.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 119.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 117.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 10c | 113.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 99.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…959abacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 52.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 39.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 38.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 32.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsYes Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.