MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd68f6a15ddaec1921fcfba52183a786252c47c21317a537894093fa4428c84bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 2,892$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.13 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 2,641$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.09 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 2,620$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.15 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 2,379$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.24 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 2,131$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 1,190$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,001$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 585.24$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 481.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 386.62$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 362.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 342.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 246.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 192.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 185.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 175.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 171.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 171.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 160.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 157.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…0820backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 139.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 125.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 120.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 117.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 117.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 117.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 106.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 81.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 75.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 73.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 71.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 66.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 60.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 59.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 54.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 54.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 54.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 48.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 44.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 41.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c8ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 33.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15f…a199backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 30.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 20.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 18.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsYes Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.