MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c5029dd34067a4567ba6d6d74e6bfb817d8082452f343d2a505fe52384d817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 5,264$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 2,015$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,503$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.94 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 4c | 1,479$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +339.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 55c | 1,445$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 37c | 962.41$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.86 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 918.43$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.87 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 55c | 885.59$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.52 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 30c | 777.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 76c | 582.8$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.69 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 46c | 533.95$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.67 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 53c | 477.53$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.09 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 45c | 403.3$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.82 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 403.02$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 37c | 381.47$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 42c | 372.02$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.63 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 317.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 48c | 275.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 65c | 273.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.42 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 54c | 270.11$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 241.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 48c | 241$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 54c | 194.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…0820backed Under | 72c | 151.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 44c | 141.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 45c | 135.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 44c | 121.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 51c | 118.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 99.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 98.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 95.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…64edbacked Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 57c | 84.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 54c | 79.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 52c | 73.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 35c | 72.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 51c | 72.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 38c | 69.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 71c | 63.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 53c | 59.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…4789backed Under | 53c | 59.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 53c | 59.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 70c | 55.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 24c | 55.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 29c | 52.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 48.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 48.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 36c | 48.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 59c | 47.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 47c | 46.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 29c | 45.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 29c | 45.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 36c | 37.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 51c | 36.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 47c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Under | 46c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 59c | 29.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 59c | 28.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 28.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 59c | 28.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…4f06backed Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked Over | 50c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 61c | 21.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 55c | 21.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…30debacked Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…a066backed Under | 53c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsYes Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.