TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,710 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates59c4,000$2,360 inWon+$1,639.8660350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs41c1,876$770 inLost-$769.9711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs41c1,200$492 inLost-$491.975,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs41c500$205 inLost-$2051,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs39c260.57$102 inLost-$101.628,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs41c211.15$86 inLost-$85.726,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c167.58$99 inWon+$68.711,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c164.22$87 inWon+$77.7110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs41c131.63$54 inLost-$53.972,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c112.5$66 inWon+$46.1279555.6%442 W · 353 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates61c80.72$49 inWon+$31.5627652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Chicago Cubs41c72.13$30 inLost-$29.5773949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs41c57.77$24 inLost-$23.692,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6e…d6debacked Chicago Cubs42c50.34$21 inLost-$212560%15 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c42.37$25 inWon+$17.3729656.1%166 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Chicago Cubs41c38.44$16 inLost-$15.761,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Chicago Cubs41c36.1$15 inLost-$14.897050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago Cubs46c33.34$15 inLost-$15.261,04051.8%539 W · 501 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates60c33.19$20 inWon+$13.23070%21 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Pittsburgh Pirates58c25.33$15 inWon+$10.596448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.