TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,592 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates57c4,000$2,280 inWon+$1,72060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs43c1,723$740 inLost-$739.7312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Chicago Cubs43c1,100$473 inLost-$473.1811748.7%57 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs39c507.27$198 inLost-$197.899,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates18c458.93$84 inWon+$375.173,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x106d…ccefbacked Pittsburgh Pirates19c444.74$84 inWon+$360.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+124.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chicago Cubs43c441.5$190 inLost-$189.851,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs23c157$37 inLost-$36.841,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs39c121$47 inLost-$47.198,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c85.95$50 inWon+$36.127652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Chicago Cubs43c50.49$22 inLost-$21.7194648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs44c48.37$21 inLost-$21.411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c34.06$20 inWon+$14.313070%21 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe6…1d65backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c33.88$19 inWon+$14.48544.7%38 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c30$17 inWon+$13.326,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs44c23.5$10 inLost-$10.291,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates76c13.61$10 inWon+$3.2753261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.