TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,055 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates28c2,186$612 inWon+$1,573.922,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago Cubs72c1,450$1,044 inLost-$1,043.8465549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates44c1,213$534 inWon+$678.5811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs56c1,200$672 inLost-$6725,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs72c744.69$536 inLost-$536.272,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates75c634.01$476 inWon+$158.58,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs53c566.01$300 inLost-$299.992,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs25c487.93$122 inLost-$121.989,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c463.54$227 inWon+$236.788,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates71c341$242 inWon+$98.8953261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs51c215.68$110 inLost-$1106,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs24c176.41$42 inLost-$41.668,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates47c162.93$76 inWon+$86.474,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs53c162$86 inLost-$85.8612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Pittsburgh Pirates47c107.37$50 inWon+$57.3744737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates46c105.99$49 inWon+$57.312555.2%69 W · 56 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs52c95.17$49 inLost-$49.492,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates26c84.65$22 inWon+$62.643,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates47c69.3$33 inWon+$36.733,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed Pittsburgh Pirates27c59.26$16 inWon+$43.265947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Chicago Cubs73c54.79$40 inLost-$4013672.1%98 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs29c47$14 inLost-$13.631,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs72c37.97$28 inLost-$27.51,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Chicago Cubs58c37.93$22 inLost-$221,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4662…1d65backed Chicago Cubs74c37.57$28 inLost-$27.84736.2%17 W · 30 L-9.0wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-35.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Chicago Cubs52c30$16 inLost-$15.61,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago Cubs55c27$15 inLost-$14.851,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed Chicago Cubs73c24.99$18 inLost-$18.2511949.6%59 W · 60 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.